Event Models

Event models extend exponential smoothing by allowing you to adjust for events like sales promotions, strikes or simply for unexplained outliers. Multiple events are used to account for promotions of different types or sizes, different calendar effects like Easter and Independence Day weeks, or any other “out of the ordinary” occurrence.

To build an event model, you must tell the program when events of each type occur. To do this, you must construct an event schedule which classifies each period by event code (0=no event, 1=event of type 1, 2=event of type 2, etc.). You can create event schedules interactively using the Event Manager or create them outside of Forecast Pro and import them using the Helpers row in the Data Manager. When you create an event schedule interactively, Forecast Pro will create a helper variable with this schedule.