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New Comprehensive Business Forecasting Resource
The newly-published reference book Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions compiles important and influential literature in the field into a single comprehensive resource for improving your forecasting process. […]
What are Time Series Methods and When Should I Use Them?
Time series methods are forecasting techniques that base the forecast solely on the demand history of the item you are forecasting. They work by capturing patterns in the historical data and extrapolating those patterns into the future. Time series methods are appropriate when you can assume a reasonable amount of continuity between the past and the future. They are best [...]
Using Seasonal Simplification to Improve Forecasts
Forecast Pro includes a forecasting approach called seasonal simplification. Seasonal simplification is an extension of exponential smoothing which “simplifies” the modeling of the seasonal pattern by reducing the number of indices used. In many cases the seasonally simplified model can substantially improve forecast accuracy. […]
Creating Accurate Forecasts When Your Demand History Includes Outliers
Preparing forecasts using data that contain one or more unusually large or small demand periods can be challenging. Depending on your forecasting approach, these “outliers” can have a significant impact on your forecasts. This article surveys three different approaches to forecasting data containing unusual demand periods, discusses the pros and cons of each and recommends when it is best to [...]
The Ins and Outs of Using Dynamic Regression Models for Forecasting
The recording of our recent educational one-hour Webinar is now available for viewing on-demand https://youtu.be/XBYqjV6imS0 This session demystifies regression modeling, demonstrating how these models can provide insight into your data and why they often yield more accurate results than alternative forecasting methods. Learn: When to apply regression models How to build and diagnose the models How to use leading indicators, [...]
Managing Forecasts by Exception
Human review of a statistically-generated forecast is an important step in the forecast process. Ideally, every statistical forecast should be inspected for plausibility. At times, the sheer volume of the forecasts being generated precludes exhaustive individual inspection. In these instances, exception reports are an effective tool to help you sift through the forecasts and focus on the items where human [...]
