Introduction to Forecast Pro......................... 1
Forecasters and Collaborators............................................................................... 1
What You Need to Run Forecast Pro..................................................................... 1
Future Development of Forecast Pro................................................................... 1
Forecast Pro Resources............................................................................................ 1
Installing Forecast Pro.............................................................................................. 2
A Quick Overview of Forecasting.................. 5
What is Statistical Forecasting?.............................................................................. 5
Forecasting Methodologies..................................................................................... 6
Some Forecasting Tips.............................................................................................. 9
Setting Up Your Historic Data..................... 10
Overview................................................................................................................... 10
Selecting a Data Format......................................................................................... 13
Excel (XLS, XLSX, CSV) Formats............................................................................ 13
Text (MLT) Format................................................................................................... 17
Using ODBC............................................................................................................... 18
Using Attribute Fields to Define a Hierarchy.................................................... 20
Setting Up Your Optional Data.................... 22
Explanatory Variable Files..................................................................................... 22
Global Explanatory Variables................................................................................ 23
Item-specific Explanatory Variables.................................................................... 23
Custom Allocation Files......................................................................................... 24
Override Files........................................................................................................... 25
Helper Files............................................................................................................... 26
Modifier Files............................................................................................................ 27
The Forecast Pro Interface.......................... 29
Operations Overview.............................................................................................. 29
Forecast Pro Interface Overview......................................................................... 30
The Startup Page..................................................................................................... 30
Quick Access Toolbar.............................................................................................. 31
Ribbon Menu............................................................................................................. 31
The Navigator........................................................................................................... 31
The Hot List............................................................................................................... 31
View Window............................................................................................................ 32
The Status Bar.......................................................................................................... 34
Forecast Pro Ribbon Tabs...................................................................................... 34
File Tab....................................................................................................................... 34
Home Tab.................................................................................................................. 35
Forecasting Tab........................................................................................................ 36
Reports Tab............................................................................................................... 36
Import Tab................................................................................................................. 37
Export Tab................................................................................................................. 38
Operations Tab......................................................................................................... 38
Help Tab..................................................................................................................... 39
The Navigator Context Menu............................................................................... 39
Working with Layouts.................................. 41
Adding Layouts........................................................................................................ 41
Managing Layouts................................................................................................... 41
Using the Data Manager.............................. 44
Row Types................................................................................................................. 44
Row Controls............................................................................................................ 44
Forecast Pro Options.................................. 47
The Basics Tab.......................................................................................................... 47
The Formats Tab...................................................................................................... 48
The Outliers Tab...................................................................................................... 50
The Overrides Tab................................................................................................... 51
The Command Line Tab.......................................................................................... 52
The Pareto Tab......................................................................................................... 54
The Performance Tab............................................................................................. 55
The Advanced Tab................................................................................................... 57
The Forecast Pro Views............................... 59
The Forecast Report View..................................................................................... 59
The Graph Views...................................................................................................... 60
The Override Forecasts View................................................................................ 64
Working with overrides.......................................................................................... 64
The Diagnostics View.............................................................................................. 66
The Override Report View..................................................................................... 67
The Outlier Report View........................................................................................ 68
The Numeric Output View..................................................................................... 68
The Item Report View............................................................................................. 71
Saving Your Work....................................... 73
Forecast Projects..................................................................................................... 73
Numeric Output Files.............................................................................................. 75
Forecast Reports..................................................................................................... 75
Item Reports............................................................................................................. 75
Outlier Reports........................................................................................................ 76
Override Reports..................................................................................................... 76
Customizing Your Forecasts....................... 77
Expert Selection....................................................................................................... 77
Machine Learning.................................................................................................... 77
Automatic Univariate Machine Learning............................................................ 77
Custom Machine Learning Models....................................................................... 78
Machine Learning Methodology.......................................................................... 79
Machine Learning Forecast Report...................................................................... 80
Exponential Smoothing.......................................................................................... 81
Automatic Exponential Smoothing..................................................................... 81
Simple Exponential Smoothing............................................................................ 81
Holt Exponential Smoothing................................................................................. 82
Winters Exponential Smoothing.......................................................................... 82
NA-CL Exponential Smoothing............................................................................. 82
Custom Exponential Smoothing........................................................................... 82
Event Models............................................................................................................ 84
The Event Manager................................................................................................. 84
Custom Component Model................................................................................... 87
Dynamic Regression................................................................................................ 89
New Product Models............................................................................................... 92
By Analogy................................................................................................................ 92
Bass Diffusion........................................................................................................... 94
Custom Component Model................................................................................... 95
Low Volume Models................................................................................................ 95
Intermittent Data.................................................................................................... 95
Discrete Data............................................................................................................ 95
NA-CL Exponential Smoothing............................................................................. 95
Other Forecasting Options.................................................................................... 96
Box-Jenkins (ARIMA).............................................................................................. 96
Same as Last Year.................................................................................................... 96
Discontinue............................................................................................................... 97
Best-fit Line.............................................................................................................. 98
Moving Average....................................................................................................... 98
Curve Fitting............................................................................................................. 99
Weight (Weighting Transformations)................................................................. 99
Fixed Value............................................................................................................. 100
Custom Modifiers.................................................................................................. 100
Group Level (Reconciliation Modifiers)............................................................ 101
Top-down................................................................................................................ 101
Custom Allocation................................................................................................. 102
Indexes..................................................................................................................... 102
Data Tools............................................................................................................... 102
Diagnostics............................................................................................................. 102
Create Helper......................................................................................................... 103
Outliers.................................................................................................................... 104
Start Dates.............................................................................................................. 105
Remove Modifiers................................................................................................. 105
Working with Hierarchies.......................... 106
Defining the Hierarchy......................................................................................... 106
Reconciling the Hierarchy................................................................................... 106
Understanding How Forecast Overrides are Allocated................................................... 110
Adjustments Made to a Single Level................................................................. 110
Adjustments Made to More Than One Level................................................... 111
Examples Where Overrides Cannot be Allocated.......................................... 113
Summation.............................................................................................................. 114
Appendices............................................... 115
Command Line Operation................................................................................... 115
Speeding Up the Program................................................................................... 116
End-User License Agreement............................................................................. 119
Suggested Reading............................................................................................... 121